Thursday, May 24, 2007

Prospects to Watch

We're past the 40 game mark and the division races are starting to shake themselves out. Some teams will become buyers at the deadline, exchanging promising prospects for proven (and often overpaid) veterans. Rather than trade speculation, however, I would like to take a look at the prospects that may be called up around the All Star Break and have an immediate impact on a pennant race.

A prospect like Homer Bailey, who is about as MLB-ready as they come, is not considered because the Reds aren't going to sniff the postseason this year. And while I think it's a stretch that Justin Upton gets called up in his second year as a pro, he's certainly knocking on the door after being promoted to Double-A and continuing to mash. Without further adieu:

  • Phil Hughes is still technically a prospect, and will be back in roughly 3 weeks, which is about the time that the Yankees annually decide to actually begin to compete. Much fuss has been made about their maligned rotation, but with Clemens and Hughes added to the mix full-time, I don't think anyone can count the Yanks out just yet.
  • Yovanni Gallardo has been a bit underrated in my mind throughout his minor league career, but he is an absolute stud SP in the Brewers' system. If Dave Bush (3-4, 5.66) continues to struggle, Gallardo should be able to step in and make an immediate impact. His numbers in AAA are sick, at 6-1, 2.14 with a 0.95 WHIP and a 76/18 K/BB ratio in 54.2 innings. He took over the minor league strikeout lead after Tim Lincecum was called up by the Giants. At the very least, if Bush rights himself, Sheets stays healthy, and Capuano, Suppan and Vargas stay respectable, Gallardo could be used in a setup role for Francisco Cordero. Turnbow, Gallardo and Cordero in the late innings ain't bad.
  • Adam Miller is currently clowning on fools for the Indians' Triple-A affiliate; all he needs is a spot in the big club's rotation to open up. Fausto Carmona has been spectacular, as has CC Sabathia. If Jeremy Sowers continues to scuffle (I begrudgingly dropped him from my fantasy team last week), maybe he could be demoted in favor of Miller, who sports a 2.45 ERA for the Buffalo Bisons. His strikeout numbers aren't spectacular, but serviceable, and scouts love his pure stuff. He's a guy who sat out all of 2005 with an elbow injury, according to the Baseball America Prospect Handbook, but regained his velocity in full, sitting at 93-95 with his four seamer and flirting with 100 mph, and with a sick slider being his out pitch.
  • Kevin Slowey would like to be called up by the Minnesota Twins, please. The Twins are still contenders in my eyes, but Johan can't pitch every other day. At some point, Slowey is going to have to join him in that rotation. His Triple-A numbers are astounding: 1.76 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 50/5 K/BB (!!!!) in 56.1 IP. Ramon Ortiz starts for the Twins. I don't really think much else needs to be said. Matt Garza may be deserving of another look as well.

I realize that this list is comprised exclusively of starting pitchers, and that there are some deserving position players on the farm for many pennant-contending clubs. The teams with the highest concentration of elite prospects at the upper levels of the minors, however, I don't really trust to manage their minor league talent properly. Bill Stoneman still has not proven that he can translate his bevy of prospects into big league talent, and Ned Colletti has almost every top-tiered prospect blocked in some way (exhibit A: James Loney). If those clubs can translate their highly-regarded farm system into contributors at the big league level, they will cement themselves as legitimate contenders throughout the season.

Use the comments to let me know your thoughts as far as guys I may have left out.

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