Crazy Times

Next week is finals week at the great Ohio University, so I'm pretty busy right now. For my Econometrics class, I am working on a study of pitching prospects and the effect of various variables on their arbitration awards. It's pretty interesting so far, and I'll post the results next week. It's doubtful that I will find anything too groundbreaking, as pitching prospects are pretty much as unpredictable as the Tampa police blotter since Elijah Dukes got called up. Forgive me if I post sporadically over the next few days.

Credibility!!!

Looks like I exercised a bit of clairvoyance in my post on top prospects to watch. Fantasy Gameday is tentatively reporting that Kevin Slowey has been chosen to replace Ramon Ortiz in the Twins' rotation, and that Yovanni Gallardo may be on his way to helping Milwaukee's big club. These are still unsubstantiated, but both look probable. Great moves for both clubs, even if Gallardo starts out in the bullpen, which I think will be the case. I don't see them pulling the plug on Dave Bush just yet, but you never know.

UPDATE: The Twins' official site reports that Ortiz has been relegated to the pen and speculates that it's either Slowey or Garza who will get the call. The Brewers' official site has nothing of note aside from the fact that Ben Sheets has a blister on his throwing hand.

UPDATE PART DEUX: I think I was a little pre-emptive in taking credit for my Gallardo prediction; according to Fantasy Gameday, he was merely activated in Yahoo! fantasy baseball leagues. I'll keep you posted if I hear anything else.

The Relief Market

OMG the trade deadline is like 2 months away!!

I've always believed that the bullpen is what comes last to a championship club. A stud closer isn't necessary for a team 20 games out of first place. After a team has built up a solid lineup and rotation, it should look to bolster its pen. For that reason, the relief market is always particularly interesting to me around the trade deadline.


Honestly, who doesn't need relief help at this point? The Yankees have more pressing needs, and the Red Sox are looking pretty solid in the 8th and 9th with Okajima and Papelbon, so the AL East should be good for now. But the two teams at the top of the AL Central, Cleveland and Detroit, are in dire need of bullpen help. The Tribe's closer is Joe Borowski, and the Tigers sport a relief corps that includes Jose Mesa.....

In the NL, the Phillies are the obvious trade candidate, and the Mets may look to bolster their pen for the stretch run. I've heard more than enough Scott Linebrink trade rumors over the past two years; I would rather look at under the radar guys that may be able to help a contender in the late innings of a pennant race.

• The Rangers have made Eric Gagne available. No one doubts his stuff, but his ability to stay healthy has always been an issue. He's owed $6 million this year, with an additional $5 million in incentives. It probably wouldn't take an elite prospect to get him, especially if the receiving team pays most of the contract. Another formerly effective guy coming off injury is Octavio Dotel in KC, who I think the Royals signed with the intention of rehabbing him and pawning him off at the deadline.
• Speaking of the Royals, Zach Greinke was recently moved to the bullpen and may be a legitimate trade candidate. Greinke was a high-level prospect with an impressive rookie season in 2004. The Royals don't really have a pressing need to keep a young, high-upside setup man with emotional issues. It almost makes too much sense.
• Then there's the slew of mediocre dudes who are improving their trade value for bad teams. Al Reyes is acting all sweet and stuff in Tampa Bay; if they don't trade him I will tear my eyeballs out. My buddy Brian has a weird crush on Jeremy Affeldt; he's another formerly promising prospect who couldn't cut it as a starter. He's having a solid season in Colorado, but his peripheral stats aren't promising (14 BB to 12 K). And finally, Damaso Marte is filth mode in Pittsburgh. It's going to be hard for the Pirates to trade another strong reliever after shipping Mike Gonzalez to the Braves last fall, but I'm pretty sure this was the best case scenario for them when they signed him to a 2 year extension through 2008: go lights out, improve your trade value, and then net us a top prospect at the end of July. He's only owed $2.75 million this year and $2 million in '08. Highly tradeable.
  

Matt Garza is Pissed

At the conclusion of the Kevin Slowey tidbit a couple days ago, I mentioned that Matt Garza may be a candidate for a mid-season call up to the Twins to help bolster the starting rotation. He's right on the threshold of prospectdom; he threw exactly 50 innings in 9 starts last year after going 18-8, 2.56 in two minor league years spanning all five levels. He was the Twins top prospect heading into 2007, according to Baseball America.

But now, according to the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Garza is upset with the way the Twins have handled his development. Specifically, he's pissed at the off-speed quota they have imposed upon him this year in Triple-A.

"I know I can throw my off-speed pitches for strikes. It's just that I was pressing because I was trying to make them happy, and I can't be that guy anymore. ... I told my pitching coach, and I hope he relayed the message (to general manager Terry Ryan and director of minor leagues Jim Rantz), I said, 'I can't do it, man. I've been scratching my head and not sleeping well at night because I'm trying to be something I'm not.' "

My initial reaction: deal with it. The point of the minor leagues for a pitcher is to refine less-than-adequate secondary offerings. If Garza is displeased with the fact that his ERA is an undesirable 3.49, he should take solace in the fact that the Twins are being patient and encouraging him to develop the tools necessary to be a big league pitcher. His high-90s fastball is great and all, but without two dependable off speed pitches, he's a glorified setup man. Rushing pitchers who are short on secondary pitches can seriously stunt their development. Exhibit A: Garza's 5.76 major league ERA last season.


As a Tigers' fan with an unhealthy love for Jeremy Bonderman, I've maintained since 2003 that his abrupt call-up from A-ball stunted his development of the changeup he needs to be a Cy Young pitcher. Terry Ryan and his staff have been masterful at developing their minor league talent over the past decade; it seems to me that Matt Garza should realize that what is in the Twins' interest is also in his own. I think Kevin Slowey just cemented himself as the first Minnesota farmhand to get the call to the bigs.

Braun Called Up by Brewers

Of course, one of the key omissions from my Prospects to Watch list gets called up the next day. Ryan Braun will likely start at third base for the Brewers tonight against Greg Maddux and the Padres. Milwaukee fans are likely calling off work for a day of Braun worship, as he has the enviable task of replacing a third base platoon of Tony Graffanino and Craig Counsell, who have been absolutely awful to date.

Counsell: .231/.360/.308
Graffanino: .187/.261/.234

He should add some pop at a premium power position to a team that is already first in the NL with a .442 slugging average. If he performs to expectations, that's a freakishly powerful infield of Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, JJ Hardy and Braun. The 5th pick in the 2005 draft, the BA Prospect Handbook listed him as the Brewers' top position prospect heading into 2007, calling him "a rare five-tool corner infielder" with "tremendous bat speed (who) profiles as an impact hitter for average and power."

Prospects to Watch

We're past the 40 game mark and the division races are starting to shake themselves out. Some teams will become buyers at the deadline, exchanging promising prospects for proven (and often overpaid) veterans. Rather than trade speculation, however, I would like to take a look at the prospects that may be called up around the All Star Break and have an immediate impact on a pennant race.

A prospect like Homer Bailey, who is about as MLB-ready as they come, is not considered because the Reds aren't going to sniff the postseason this year. And while I think it's a stretch that Justin Upton gets called up in his second year as a pro, he's certainly knocking on the door after being promoted to Double-A and continuing to mash. Without further adieu:

• Phil Hughes is still technically a prospect, and will be back in roughly 3 weeks, which is about the time that the Yankees annually decide to actually begin to compete. Much fuss has been made about their maligned rotation, but with Clemens and Hughes added to the mix full-time, I don't think anyone can count the Yanks out just yet.
• Yovanni Gallardo has been a bit underrated in my mind throughout his minor league career, but he is an absolute stud SP in the Brewers' system. If Dave Bush (3-4, 5.66) continues to struggle, Gallardo should be able to step in and make an immediate impact. His numbers in AAA are sick, at 6-1, 2.14 with a 0.95 WHIP and a 76/18 K/BB ratio in 54.2 innings. He took over the minor league strikeout lead after Tim Lincecum was called up by the Giants. At the very least, if Bush rights himself, Sheets stays healthy, and Capuano, Suppan and Vargas stay respectable, Gallardo could be used in a setup role for Francisco Cordero. Turnbow, Gallardo and Cordero in the late innings ain't bad.
• Adam Miller is currently clowning on fools for the Indians' Triple-A affiliate; all he needs is a spot in the big club's rotation to open up. Fausto Carmona has been spectacular, as has CC Sabathia. If Jeremy Sowers continues to scuffle (I begrudgingly dropped him from my fantasy team last week), maybe he could be demoted in favor of Miller, who sports a 2.45 ERA for the Buffalo Bisons. His strikeout numbers aren't spectacular, but serviceable, and scouts love his pure stuff. He's a guy who sat out all of 2005 with an elbow injury, according to the Baseball America Prospect Handbook, but regained his velocity in full, sitting at 93-95 with his four seamer and flirting with 100 mph, and with a sick slider being his out pitch.
  

• Kevin Slowey would like to be called up by the Minnesota Twins, please. The Twins are still contenders in my eyes, but Johan can't pitch every other day. At some point, Slowey is going to have to join him in that rotation. His Triple-A numbers are astounding: 1.76 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 50/5 K/BB (!!!!) in 56.1 IP. Ramon Ortiz starts for the Twins. I don't really think much else needs to be said. Matt Garza may be deserving of another look as well.

I realize that this list is comprised exclusively of starting pitchers, and that there are some deserving position players on the farm for many pennant-contending clubs. The teams with the highest concentration of elite prospects at the upper levels of the minors, however, I don't really trust to manage their minor league talent properly. Bill Stoneman still has not proven that he can translate his bevy of prospects into big league talent, and Ned Colletti has almost every top-tiered prospect blocked in some way (exhibit A: James Loney). If those clubs can translate their highly-regarded farm system into contributors at the big league level, they will cement themselves as legitimate contenders throughout the season.

Use the comments to let me know your thoughts as far as guys I may have left out.

Giambi, Teixeira

I'm making this post with the door locked for fear of Elijah Dukes breaking in and threatening to kill me and my unborn children.

MLB Trade Rumors and FanNation have reported over the past two days a trade rumor involving Jason Giambi to the Angels. Today, the New York Post reports that Giambi, who has a full no-trade clause, will veto any such deal. I'm pretty sure the Yankees would have had to pay a significant portion of Giambi's contract to get this done, especially if they expected one of two of LA's much-heralded prospects. I don't see Giambi going anywhere, with the steroids and the money and the possible drop off in production.

The Detroit Free Press reports today that the Tigers have not inquired about trading for Mark Teixeira. As I've noted before, the New York could be his eventual destination if Giambi does in fact get moved. As a Tigers fan, I would love to acquire Tex, what with Sean Casey being the most worthless first baseman in the game and all. However, I'm not sure what Jon Daniels would require in the way of prospects or MLB ready players; probably some pitching. Also, Teixeira is a free agent after 2008. Things to think about. Possible destinations apart from the Yankees, in my mind, would include the Angels, Red Sox, and Dodgers. But then again, every high profile hitter is rumored to go to one of these four teams.

If the Red Sox choose to not extend Lowell's contract, though it is noted below that they are mulling that option, they could move Youkilis to third and stick Teixeira at first. Ortiz-Manny-Teixeira?????? Yikes.

Evan Chan of the Dallas Morning News also suggests Baltimore as a possible destination for Tex, with a possible return of Erik Bedard or Adam Loewen. Strangely enough, he believes Peter Angelos' pride in his "Greek heritage" would prohibit the O's from dealing Nick Markakis.....?

If I was talking to Baltimore, my hope would be to get Bedard or Adam Loewen and Nick Markakis. Not sure Baltimore would do that even if they were guaranteed of having Teixeira around for several years. Not sure Peter Angelos (who is very proud of his Greek heritage) would permit the Orioles to trade a talented Greek-American outfielder. And I really don’t think the addition of Mark Teixeira and the subtraction of the players I mentioned is going to help the Orioles win now or in 2008. But if I’m the Rangers' GM, the only reason I care about that is because it may be a hindrance to the deal.

He goes on to note a possible return from Boston including Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury or Kevin Youkilis, which I think is a lofty projection from a hometown sportswriter, but interesting nonetheless.

A-Rod Speculation

A-Rod's opt-out clause is the sexiest topic of the young baseball season, along with the trade rumors that have been swirling since his unimpressive October last year. With the Yankees flirting with the prospect of dropping out of contention already this season, we might see Brian Cashman cut his losses (and his payroll, significantly) and shop Rodriguez.

FanNation links to a Boston Herald story which speculates that the Red Sox, long considered a front-runner for A-Rod's services after he opts out of his current contract, may go another direction and offer a contract extension to Mike Lowell:

Three weeks ago, it seemed A-Rod’s next stop might very well be Boston. This is where A-Rod wanted to be when he left Texas in 2003. The Red Sox have the money, the flair for the dramatic and a potential opening at third base. It was the perfect storm for the current Sox administration: a move that would make Theo Epstein as giddy as Charles Steinberg.

But this is how well things have gone for the Red Sox as they bring their gaudy American League East lead into the Bronx this week. Instead of angling to add A-Rod to the mix, it may be time to talk contract with their incumbent third baseman, Mike Lowell [stats].

Lowell is currently off to a hot start, hitting .333/.391/.560. He was surprisingly effective last year as well, with an .816 OPS. He's certainly a cheaper alternative to Rodriguez, who looks to be in line for another $20 million+ AAV deal for a significantly longer time commitment.

Another possible suitor for A-Rod is the White Sox. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, Kenny Williams is pissed at the team's slow start. Williams has never been shy about making a bold trade to better his club. There is a significant blockage at third base, with Joe Crede already blocking top position prospect Josh Fields at the hot corner. Both have gotten off to abysmal starts, however, and Williams' patience is apparently wearing thin. Another option would be to move Rodriguez back to shortstop, and keeping one of Crede or Fields at third. I don't think I'm alone in my belief that A-Rod would be a bit of an offensive upgrade over Juan Uribe.

Yankees Looking to Void Giambi's Deal?

According to the New York Daily News, Jason Giambi's admission in a USA Today interview that he used steroids may lead the Yankees to again look into voiding his contract. Giambi is owed $21 million each in 2007 and 2008, with a $22 million team option for 2009. The team option holds a $5 million buyout.

With the Yanks on the hook for at least a guaranteed $47 million over the next two years, I guess it would be prudent to explore this option. I don't know how successful they will be, however. I would imagine the players' union would have a small problem with the idea. Also, I know the Yankees are trying to stray from the seven billion dollar payroll thing, which is fine, but I don't think they will find a 1B/DH option of Doug Mientkiewicz and Josh Phelps conducive to winning championships. And we all know how George likes his rings.

Also:

• Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News has an interesting column on summer trade candidates. Maybe Teixiera is the guy for NYY if they can shed Giambi's contract.
• It turns out that Evan Grant is a rumormongering machine! Here's another column on the possibility of Torii Hunter ending up in Texas as a free agent.
• According to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, Lastings Milledge's trade value continues to drop, lately because of his behavior off the field. It's not like Omar Minaya absolutely has to trade his most valuable chip; I would hold on to him until either his value begins to rise or a pressing need arises with respect to that rotation.
  

Welcome to The Burn of the Bat

I remember that afternoon in the spring of '86 when you and I were driving with Ted Williams over to have that night of discussing hits with Don Mattingly. Ted leaned forward in the car and said, 'Hey Wade, did you ever smell the burn of a bat?' Well, there are very few people who have. I have never forgot that. When the All-Century Team gathered around Ted at Fenway before the '99 All-Star Game, Ted asked Mark McGwire the same question. He retold the story. He said, 'Did you ever smell the burn of the bat?' There were six National League players in the room at the time around McGwire. What is he talking about? Well, let's face it, the burning of a bat is the lexicon of the gods.
-Peter Gammons HOF Induction Speech

With that I welcome you to The Burn of the Bat, an all-encompassing baseball blog bringing you the best of Major League and Minor League Baseball.

You will find regularly updated content here regarding everything from trade rumors to prospect analysis to predictions. I will draw in content from a variety of sources, including print media and other reputable blogs.

On the right side you will see constantly updated feeds from the three sites I find most informative: Baseball America, Roto Authority and MLB Trade Rumors. I have also posted a variety of links to general baseball sites; in the future I will add links to blogs for individual teams.

Thanks for dropping by, and keep coming back!