Draft is Imminent

We're a little over a half hour from the Rule IV draft, and I figure I'll satisfy those 4 readers who will be logging in between now and 2 PM with a healthy dose of draft rumors before we kick things off on ESPN2.

• The Cubs are really high on HS 3B Josh Vitters or HS RHP Rick Porcello with the 3rd pick. Vitters is in the general discussion regarding the top 5 of the draft, he's a right-handed corner infielder that can mash. Rick Porcello is the consensus 2nd best pitching prospect in the draft, behind David Price, but has dropped significantly in many mock drafts due to a reported $8 million price tag.
  
• The White Sox are picking 25th and heavily leaning toward a pitcher. One of the names on the list is Canadian High Schooler Phillipe Aumont, who I have seen on a lot of drafts going much earlier, some in the top 10. A hitter on their list in the first round is shortstop Justin Jackson, who went to Roberson High School in Asheville, NC. Another notable graduate? Cameron Maybin.
• Bill Conlin of Philly.com has posted a column for dumb people.
• Richard Griffin speculates that the J.P. Ricciardi will harken back to his Moneyball days and the Blue Jays will focus on college players with more than a few of their bevy of early pics.
• Jim Salisbury writes that the Phils will look to add high-ceiling offensive talent in the early rounds, and focus on solid pitching later on.

That's all I've got for now. I'm going to go crack a beer half in celebration of the draft and half in celebration of college graduation. It's going to be a fun day; enjoy the draft.

Boras and the Draft

Signability is always an issue in the draft. It's what caused the Padres to make maybe the worst #1 pick ever in 2004 when they picked Matt Bush, unheralded SS out of a San Diego High School, and paid him a $3.15 million signing bonus. They did this to avoid paying the $4.4 million that Jered Weaver got from LAA, or the $5 million Stephen Drew received from the Diamondbacks. Why were they able to predict higher signing bonuses and more guaranteed money for these guys, who were not coincidentally better prospects who have both reached the big leagues? Both were represented by Scott Boras.

Frankly, I don't understand the signability issue. Last season, Ian Kennedy fell to the Yankees at #21, and they signed him for $2.25 million, which is at least $500,000 more than each of the previous 9 picks. The Yankees piss $500,000, and they're willing to invest it in young talent that may give them three seasons of MLB production for close to the league minimum. If it doesn't work out, it's a hell of a lot less financially damaging than spending $40 million on 19 starts from Carl Pavano.


Sure, projecting amateur talent is a bit of a crap shoot. For that reason, I can see passing on a second-tier prospect because of his affiliation with Boras, when you can get a similar guy represented by someone else for a half-million less. But when we're talking about an elite prospect, this year's David Price, Matt Wieters, Josh Vitters, Rick Porcello, etc., you ought to pony up the cash and sign him. Justin Upton got $6.1 million in 2005 and even I was like wtf, but so far he is absolutely mashing AA pitching at the age of 19. If that $6.1 million stretches itself over 3 league minimum years in his prime, and then the D-Backs get 3 cost-controlled arbitration years, it looks pretty good in retrospect. If he flames out, which is still entirely possible, then they eat the $6.1 million that they likely would have spent in a hyper-inflated free agent market where they can't compete for elite talent to begin with.

I think most middle market teams are realizing this, as evidenced by the Royals' selection of Luke Hochevar in 2006 and Upton's record-setting deal in the previous year. But now it seems the Orioles are thinking about passing on Wieters if he falls to #5 because of his Boras affiliation. I don't think he will, but still, that's pretty ludicrous to me. Hey, maybe they'll save $4 million to go sign another middle reliever. Or Corey Patterson.

Draft!!

The draft is two days away, and it's time to get excited (about the first round and a half, at least). I don't claim to be a draft expert by any stretch of the imagination; I just don't have the time to drive around the country watching high school baseball games with a radar gun. I would direct you to Baseball America for all your draft-related needs.

The first round and supplemental first round will be televised on ESPN2, starting at 2 PM on Thursday. The draft order is as follows:

1.	Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2.	Kansas City Royals
3.	Chicago Cubs
4.	Pittsburgh Pirates
5.	Baltimore Orioles
6.	Washington Nationals
7.	Milwaukee Brewers
8.	Colorado Rockies
9.	Arizona Diamondbacks
10.	San Francisco Giants
11.	Seattle Mariners
12.	Florida Marlins
13.	Cleveland Indians
14.	Atlanta Braves
15.	Cincinnati Reds
16.	Toronto Blue Jays
17.	Texas Rangers
18.	St. Louis Cardinals
19.	Philadelphia Phillies
20.	Los Angeles Dodgers
21.	Toronto Blue Jays
22.	San Francisco Giants
23.	San Diego Padres
24.	Texas Rangers
25.	Chicago White Sox
26.	Oakland Athletics
27.	Detroit Tigers
28.	Minnesota Twins
29.	San Francisco Giants
30.	New York Yankees

The Giants have six picks in the first and supplemental first rounds combined, which is good, because their system is essentially awful, especially with the recent graduation of Tim Lincecum to the big leagues. Hopefully for San Fran, their scouting department can draft as well as they did in 2006, when they snagged him. Their top two prospects heading into 2007, Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez, are both in the bigs, making their number one prospect a 16 year old third baseman named Angel Villalona, according the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. He qualifies as high-ceiling talent, but he, along with the farm system as a whole, has a ways to go.

San Diego also has six picks in those rounds. They also don't have a very good farm system, checking in at #29 overall by BA heading into 2007. Kevin Kouzmanoff was their #4 prospect. Ugh.

Texas has five picks in the first and supplemental first rounds. They could use an infusion of pitching into their system, after dealing John Danks to the White Sox and the relative flameouts of the other two members of their formerly vaunted "DVD" trio, Edinson Volquez and Thomas Diamond. They aren't busts in the pure sense of the word, but neither of them have lived up to the hype they have received in the past. Evan Chan has more on that at the Dallas Morning News.

David Price is the consensus #1 pick to the Devil Rays. He pitched the 9th and 10th innings of College World Series Regional Final last night against Michigan, giving up a game-winning HR for his first loss of the season. He went 11-1, 2.63 with 194 SO in 133 IP for Vanderbilt, who was the #1 ranked team in the nation heading into the CWS. He's pretty good.

In my tragically unqualified opinion, I like Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech. He responded strongly to accusations that he couldn't stick at catcher in the bigs, and all scouting reports I've read on him have him staying there, where his bat plays extremely well. Wieters hit .380/.480/.592 for GA Tech this year, rebounding after a slow start, which was likely a result of pitchers throwing around him, according to John Sickels. I think position players are much easier to project, as the attrition rate for amateur pitchers is staggering. I'm not saying I would take Wieters first, but I do think it's something to at least consider. Joe Mauers and Brian McCanns are extremely rare in this day and age.