Boras and the Draft

Signability is always an issue in the draft. It's what caused the Padres to make maybe the worst #1 pick ever in 2004 when they picked Matt Bush, unheralded SS out of a San Diego High School, and paid him a $3.15 million signing bonus. They did this to avoid paying the $4.4 million that Jered Weaver got from LAA, or the $5 million Stephen Drew received from the Diamondbacks. Why were they able to predict higher signing bonuses and more guaranteed money for these guys, who were not coincidentally better prospects who have both reached the big leagues? Both were represented by Scott Boras.

Frankly, I don't understand the signability issue. Last season, Ian Kennedy fell to the Yankees at #21, and they signed him for $2.25 million, which is at least $500,000 more than each of the previous 9 picks. The Yankees piss $500,000, and they're willing to invest it in young talent that may give them three seasons of MLB production for close to the league minimum. If it doesn't work out, it's a hell of a lot less financially damaging than spending $40 million on 19 starts from Carl Pavano.


Sure, projecting amateur talent is a bit of a crap shoot. For that reason, I can see passing on a second-tier prospect because of his affiliation with Boras, when you can get a similar guy represented by someone else for a half-million less. But when we're talking about an elite prospect, this year's David Price, Matt Wieters, Josh Vitters, Rick Porcello, etc., you ought to pony up the cash and sign him. Justin Upton got $6.1 million in 2005 and even I was like wtf, but so far he is absolutely mashing AA pitching at the age of 19. If that $6.1 million stretches itself over 3 league minimum years in his prime, and then the D-Backs get 3 cost-controlled arbitration years, it looks pretty good in retrospect. If he flames out, which is still entirely possible, then they eat the $6.1 million that they likely would have spent in a hyper-inflated free agent market where they can't compete for elite talent to begin with.

I think most middle market teams are realizing this, as evidenced by the Royals' selection of Luke Hochevar in 2006 and Upton's record-setting deal in the previous year. But now it seems the Orioles are thinking about passing on Wieters if he falls to #5 because of his Boras affiliation. I don't think he will, but still, that's pretty ludicrous to me. Hey, maybe they'll save $4 million to go sign another middle reliever. Or Corey Patterson.