The AL Central is Getting Rowdy

In honor of the completion of a four game series between the Tigers and Indians, I think it's time to take a closer look at the most competitive division in baseball, the American League Central. Aside from the NL West, its the only division in baseball with more than two legitimate contenders, and it stands alone as the only with four teams in the running for the division championship. That may change soon, however, as GM Kenny Williams may be shopping Mark Buerhle and Jermaine Dye. With the lack of production from Crede, Dye, Konerko, and Pierzynski, the second-worst team OPS in all of baseball, and a team ERA in the bottom half of MLB, the White Sox just might not be very good. But if Williams trades one or both of Dye and Buerhle, they'll take a definite step back and probably fall out of contention. Let's look at the other three (sorry KC):

Minnesota. There's a misconception that the Twins, without Radke and Liriano, are a good offensive ballclub with four holes in the rotation. However, they currently have the lowest team ERA in the Central. Boof Bonser (4-1, 3.61) and Carlos Silva (3-6, 3.86) have been good, though Silva's K/9 of 3.86 suggests that that ERA might be a bit flukey. Kevin Slowey was good in his first start and will probably stick with the big club. GM Terry Ryan has been historically very good at graduating impact talent from the farm system to help in the stretch run; it's how the Twins have been consistently competitive under him despite budget constraints. Getting Joe Mauer back from the DL will be a boon to the offense, and Justin Morneau has followed up his MVP season with another stellar effort thusfar, Michael Cuddyer has been above average, and Torii Hunter is doing the whole Contract Year Mash Session thing. In a division where a strong bullpen is extremely important, the Twins have.......a strong bullpen. Joe Nathan (12 saves, 2.13) may be the best closer in the game. Matt Guerrier (1.91 ERA, 0.76 WHIP), Juan Rincon (2.70 ERA, 1.55 WHIP), Glen Perkins (3.80 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), and Pat Neshek (1.33 ERA, 0.81 WHIP) precede Nathan in the bullpen. That's filthy. Oh, and besides being one of the best developing late-inning guys in the game, Neshek has a super nuts submarine-ish delivery:


Twins fans looooooooove Bon Jovi.

So the Twins have options, and I think they can compete this year with or without a major trade. One of those relievers would make for some pretty nice trade bait around the deadline.

Detroit. Speaking of teams who need relief help, the Tigers come to mind. This is a team that was almost completely injury-free last year, with the exception of Mike Maroth. It's certainly coming full circle, as they have lost Kenny Rogers, Joel Zumaya, and Fernando Rodney for extended periods of time, though Rodney was activated from the DL today. They also have Brandon Inge and Carlos Guillen currently missing time, though details of their status are currently unknown, at least by me.

Detroit may have the makings of the White Sox of 2006. Coming off a year where they won the pennant on the strength of their pitching staff, they find themselves with the middle of their order as their catalyst, with pitching falling by the wayside. Sheffield, Ordonez and Guillen are the new Thome, Konerko and Dye. They do have some strength at the top of their rotation, with Jeremy Bonderman (5-0, 3.27) pitching well while trying to master a changeup, Justin Verlander (5-2, 3.44) surprising people by pitching well despite the dramatic increase in his workload last year, and Nate Robertson (4-5, 4.25) continuing to be the dependable, if unspectacular, lefty in the middle of the rotation. Chad Durbin (5-1, 4.75) has performed admirably in his call-up to replace the injured Rogers, but at some point I expect he'll come back down to earth and revert to the types of performances we saw from him at the beginning of the season. He just doesn't have the stuff. Mike Maroth (5-4, 5.28) is trying really hard, and he's cute and all, but he kinda sucks.

The Tigers currently have the fourth-worst team ERA in the Central, and a lot of that has to do with a bullpen where Jason Grilli, Jose Mesa and Todd Jones have thrown 58.1 innings between them. Cutting Jose Mesa and getting Fernando Rodney back should help, but with a 7-8-9 of Somebody Who Can Throw A Baseball, Fernando Rodney and Todd Jones still isn't going to cut it. Too bad the Twins are in the same division, eh? GM Dave Dombrowski may look to trade for a reliever, including Troy Percival, JC Romero, or Javier Lopez.

Can the Tigers compete? Absolutely, if two things happen.

First, their pitching needs to remain a strength. Bonderman has to show he is a true ace over the course of an entire season, Verlander needs to build on last season without breaking down after the All-Star break, Nate Robertson needs to stay consistent, and the Tigs need to find someone to step up and fill the #4 spot in the rotation. The bullpen needs to be strengthened, and quickly

Second, they need to get healthy and stay healthy. Carlos Guillen can't miss the 75 games he did in 2005; he's arguably the most productive offensive SS in the game. Magglio is the undisputed MVP of the first two months of the season. He seems to be fully healthy; he's gotta stay that way. Same with Sheffield, Pudge, et. al. The Tigers are going to be in the mix again in October with a little of the luck they received last year.

Cleveland. The Tribe is proving that their expected win-loss from last year was no fluke. They're a good ball club, and just about everybody saw it coming. Grady Sizemore is sick, albeit off to a bit of a slow start by his standards (.277/.399/.479), but that's still good for an OPS of .878. I'd expect an improvement on last year's .908 OPS when it's all said and done, however, as power is generally the last tool to develop and Sizemore looks like he's going to have quite a bit of it. Batting him at the top of the order is perplexing to me; I'm not sure who Eric Wedge should stick up there but i think Sizemore has too much run-producing ability to hit first; I'm thinking he's more suited for hitting in the two or three hole. Travis Hafner (.272/.427/.482) is disgusting, and he's "slumping" to the tune of a .909 OPS. Victor Martinez has been the team's most productive hitter, slugging 12 home runs already. I'm not really sure where the power came from, as he only hit 16 in 572 at-bats last year. I really think the Tribe would be well served to move Martinez to first base and put Kelly Shoppach behind the plate full time; he's hit very well in limited ABs this year, and saving Victor's legs will allow him to harness that power and become a very dangerous hitter in the cleanup spot. Shoppach is a much better defensive catcher as well.

Most Tribe fans I know (I live in Ohio) seem to harbor a strong dislike for Casey Blake (.281/.372/.503), which is kinda weird. I tend to like guys that play for my team if they have an OPS of .875. He was pretty bad in 2005, but in '04 and '06 he was an above-average hitter. IDK, Cleveland sports fans are different. He's played the majority of his games at third, where he belongs, because Andy Marte is a clown, as well as a large bust as a prospect. What to do with Ryan Garko's (.331/.392/.515) bat if you move Victor to first? I would break up one of the platoons at the outfield corners (Dellucci/Nixon/Michaels) and stick him there. His bat is promising, the three platooners are more like 4th OFers. All in all, it's a pretty impressive lineup.

Pitching? Cleveland is one of the more interesting case studies in terms of pitching talent. At the top of the rotation, you have CC Sabathia (8-1), who is pitching pretty well at this point, but whose wins don't really match up with that ERA. Injury risk is always a risk with CC, as he's spent time on the DL in each of the past two years with a strained oblique. Strained obliques are things that happen to fat people. Sorry, bro, but you're borderline obese. Granted, he still approached 200 IP in each of those years, but it will be tough on the Tribe if he missed 3 or 4 starts during a crucial stretch run. Cliff Lee (2-3, 6.35) was pretty good in 2005, average in 2006, and has been pretty awful thusfar in 2007 in 7 starts since returning from the DL. Honestly, I think he's still hurting, but that's completely unsubstantiated guessing on my part. He just doesn't look like the Lee of 2005. Fausto Carmona (6-1, 3.29) is becoming the ace of the staff. After a traumatic 2006, he's clowning on fools with great frequency so far in '07. He was a highly touted prospect, so this isn't completely unexpected. The only knock I have on Fausto is a low K/9 rate (3.69). That's usually a predictor of future poor performance; it's a lot harder to get guys out when they are constantly putting the ball in play. Chien-Ming Wang has been successful in spite of the same problem, however, so I guess you never know. Paul Byrd (6-1, 3.57) is acting all nasty and stuff, finally earning that $7.5 millionish that Cleveland is paying him this year. Jeremy Sowers (1-5, 6.29) has been wack, to put it lightly, and is risking a demotion in favor of top prospect Adam Miller.

The bullpen is ehh. Joe Borowski (17 saves, 6.75) is Todd Jones part deux. He's not good, he gets some lucky saves, and he has a high ERA that means he's destined to fail as a closer at some point. Your closer is not supposed to have the second highest ERA on the team, Mr. Wedge. Roberto Hernandez (6.23 ERA, 1.94 WHIP) is geriatric and not good. Fernando Cabrera (5.91 ERA, 1.78 WHIP) is not living up to his "future closer" prospect status, but that K/9 of 12.66 is like WHOA. Tom Mastny (4.55 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) is okay, I guess. Aaron Fultz (1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) and Rafael Betancourt (1.61 ERA, 0.81 WHIP) are really good; look for one of them to steal Borowski's job in the near future.

The Tribe is good. Do they have holes? Sure, but not many. I'd put their chances for winning the Central on the shoulders of their rotation. I'll be interested to see how sustainable Carmona's present performance is. I think the Wild Card comes out of the Central again this year, though. Two of these three teams are going to be playing into October; if I had to guess, I would go with Cleveland winning the division and Detroit taking the WC.