A couple of good pieces on Ken Griffey Jr. over the past couple days sparked this emo passage to pass the time while at work.
My first brush with materialism came in the fourth grade, when I wanted nothing more than a $100 pair of Ken Griffey Junior's shoes for school that year. I begged and pleaded, but to no avail. I think I ended up with a pair of Grant Hill FILAs.
A die-hard Tigers fan, I received a green Seattle Mariners hat for my birthday that year, immediately turned it backward on my head and went outside to emulate Griffey's swing in a sandlot baseball game.
"The Kid" remains one of my favorite players to this day, and its evident that baseball fans across America feel the same way. He's a guy who should have gone down as the greatest to ever play the game. Furthermore, he would have done it without the assistance of performance enhancing drugs. The injuries are tragic, for sure, but it's nice to see the rest of the country appreciating Griffey as he deserves to be appreciated.
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Jay Bruce, the AA version
I mentioned a month ago that the Reds' Jay Bruce could be a candidate for a mid-season bump up to Double-A, and he ended up getting the call about a week ago. After hitting .325/.379/.586 in the high-A Florida State League, he has now slugged three homers in his first five games with Chattanooga of the Southern League.
This guy is literally going to be starting for the Reds out of Spring Training next year. Looks like Cam Maybin is the last of the 3 phenom outfielders from the 2005 draft to make it to AA, but that might not be long now either.
This guy is literally going to be starting for the Reds out of Spring Training next year. Looks like Cam Maybin is the last of the 3 phenom outfielders from the 2005 draft to make it to AA, but that might not be long now either.
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Billy Beane is Wonderful
I noticed today that Daric Barton checks in at #1 this week on Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet. It really makes you think back to the Mark Mulder trade after the 2004 season. Billy Beane absolutely clowned on Walt Jocketty, with the A's getting Dan Haren, Daric Barton, and Kiko Calero in return for Mulder, who was only one year away from free agency.
Barton is now hitting .333/.426/.496 for Triple-A Sacramento, with more walks (41) than strikeouts (32). I believe he went into the season as #2 on the A's top prospect list despite a disappointing 2006 season. He seems primed for a call-up soon, though I find it kind of weird that the A's are starting him at third base half the time, what with Eric Chavez making rought $38 million over the next 3 1/2 years and all. Regardless, the A's would probably be better served to play Barton at first and have Nick Swisher take Shannon Stewart's spot in left.
Dan Haren is sick, and everybody knows it. 9-2, 1.78 ERA, 0.90 WHIP. Enough said. Haren, Johan Santana, Justin Verlander, John Lackey, and Josh Beckett are your five AL Cy Young candidates this year.
Hell, Beane even got some value out of Kiko Calero. He sucks this year, but he gave them two years of a roughly 3.30 ERA out of the pen.
I realize it's difficult to project injuries like Mulder's, but sometimes it's just sad to look back on these AJ Pierzynski-, Mark Mulder-type deals. I think Billy Beane gets a hard time from a lot of people who think he is overrated because of Moneyball, but let's face it, he's one of the best GMs in the game.
Barton is now hitting .333/.426/.496 for Triple-A Sacramento, with more walks (41) than strikeouts (32). I believe he went into the season as #2 on the A's top prospect list despite a disappointing 2006 season. He seems primed for a call-up soon, though I find it kind of weird that the A's are starting him at third base half the time, what with Eric Chavez making rought $38 million over the next 3 1/2 years and all. Regardless, the A's would probably be better served to play Barton at first and have Nick Swisher take Shannon Stewart's spot in left.
Dan Haren is sick, and everybody knows it. 9-2, 1.78 ERA, 0.90 WHIP. Enough said. Haren, Johan Santana, Justin Verlander, John Lackey, and Josh Beckett are your five AL Cy Young candidates this year.
Hell, Beane even got some value out of Kiko Calero. He sucks this year, but he gave them two years of a roughly 3.30 ERA out of the pen.
I realize it's difficult to project injuries like Mulder's, but sometimes it's just sad to look back on these AJ Pierzynski-, Mark Mulder-type deals. I think Billy Beane gets a hard time from a lot of people who think he is overrated because of Moneyball, but let's face it, he's one of the best GMs in the game.
Sunday, June 24, 2007
Take a Flyer on the Douchebags
EDIT: Marc Lancaster writes that the Rays held on to Dukes because they refused to deal him for a grossly undervalued return. Instead, they will hold onto him, hope he turns his life around, let him mash in Triple-A and hope his value increases. Sounds like a pretty good idea to me, from their perspective.
The trade deadline is heating up. Instead of blabbing incessantly about Mark Teixeira, I think we should take a look at a couple of guys whose trade value has plummeted and could be had for pennies on the dollar relative to what it would have taken around this time last year. Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge are two extremely toolsy prospects whose value has taken a hit due in large part to off the field issues. For a rebuilding team with an excess of middle-aged middle relievers, why not try to unload one of them and take a flier on a low-risk, high-reward clown with issues? If you're the orioles, the worst case scenario is trading acquiring Milledge from the Mets, and then cutting him after his misogynistic hip-hop record takes off and he spends more time in the strip club than the batting cage. Is that really a big deal, especially if you're unloading Jamie Walker's contract to do so? With a change of scenery, maybe Lastings develops into the .300/.375/.470 player he's supposed to, and he supplants Corey Patterson in CF for the long term. For the Orioles, what the hell else are you going to do?
Dukes is a bit more of a psychopath. His worst case scenario falls somewhere between domestic assault and serial murder. Scouts love him on the field, though. The D Rays are pretty much fed up with him, and with good reason. He needs to get out of Tampa. With every executive in baseball fully aware of this, the Rays have no leverage. He can be had for a slightly above average pitching prospect. Again, if you're the Royals or the Marlins, why not? You have to play the market in this situation, and at this point, because Elijah Dukes is insane, the market vastly undervalues him. For small-market teams that have very little chance of competing, you need to stockpile these assets as they become available.
As much as I hate Dave Littlefield and think that he is the worst GM in the game, the Pirates have been surprisingly active in searching for young talent to complement a rotation led by Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell. They are in the market for Duke as well as Braves stud catching prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia. I believe I spelled that correctly without looking it up.
Random Stuff:
The trade deadline is heating up. Instead of blabbing incessantly about Mark Teixeira, I think we should take a look at a couple of guys whose trade value has plummeted and could be had for pennies on the dollar relative to what it would have taken around this time last year. Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge are two extremely toolsy prospects whose value has taken a hit due in large part to off the field issues. For a rebuilding team with an excess of middle-aged middle relievers, why not try to unload one of them and take a flier on a low-risk, high-reward clown with issues? If you're the orioles, the worst case scenario is trading acquiring Milledge from the Mets, and then cutting him after his misogynistic hip-hop record takes off and he spends more time in the strip club than the batting cage. Is that really a big deal, especially if you're unloading Jamie Walker's contract to do so? With a change of scenery, maybe Lastings develops into the .300/.375/.470 player he's supposed to, and he supplants Corey Patterson in CF for the long term. For the Orioles, what the hell else are you going to do?
Dukes is a bit more of a psychopath. His worst case scenario falls somewhere between domestic assault and serial murder. Scouts love him on the field, though. The D Rays are pretty much fed up with him, and with good reason. He needs to get out of Tampa. With every executive in baseball fully aware of this, the Rays have no leverage. He can be had for a slightly above average pitching prospect. Again, if you're the Royals or the Marlins, why not? You have to play the market in this situation, and at this point, because Elijah Dukes is insane, the market vastly undervalues him. For small-market teams that have very little chance of competing, you need to stockpile these assets as they become available.
As much as I hate Dave Littlefield and think that he is the worst GM in the game, the Pirates have been surprisingly active in searching for young talent to complement a rotation led by Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell. They are in the market for Duke as well as Braves stud catching prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia. I believe I spelled that correctly without looking it up.
Random Stuff:
- I'm watching the Twins-Marlins game right now on MLB.tv, exclusively because of the fact that Johan is pitching. The Marlins announcers provided me with this asinine statistic: since 2003, Johan's record after the All-Star break: 42-4. His ERA is something around 2.00. Ridiculous.
- I think we can reach a solid verdict on Texas GM Jon Daniels after this trade deadline. His team sucks, but he has a lot of very marketable assets with which to rebuild. How he handles Teixeira, Gagne, and Otsuka will tell us a lot about his ability. As of now, the two major deals he has made since becoming the youngest GM in the game (trading Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka; signing Michael Young to a very large deal) have not inspired much confidence for me. He can change that by doing well this July.
- I went to a Tigers-Nationals game at RFK on Monday night. Here's to hoping that the new ballpark in DC gives the fans something to rally around. Nats fans were literally outnumbered roughly 3-1 relative to Detroit fans. I don't blame them; the team is a joke and the stadium is an awful place to watch a ball game. I don't know that I trust Jim Bowden to turn the team around, but at least the plans for the park look pretty cool.
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Sorry
So I haven't posted in 12 days. College graduation and the subsequent move out to DC and starting a new job and being exhausted and stuff kind of took precedence to the blog. I'm getting back into the grind though, so I hope I didn't lose much of the precious few readers I once may have had.
In the coming days, I'll post on a variety of subjects, including an extremely brief look at the draft, an examination of Lastings Milledge's trade value and where I think he'll end up, Elijah Dukes to Washington rumors, and some other stuff as it comes to me. I would like to take an in-depth look at some of the other divisions around baseball as well.
I'm back, I swear.
In the coming days, I'll post on a variety of subjects, including an extremely brief look at the draft, an examination of Lastings Milledge's trade value and where I think he'll end up, Elijah Dukes to Washington rumors, and some other stuff as it comes to me. I would like to take an in-depth look at some of the other divisions around baseball as well.
I'm back, I swear.
Thursday, June 7, 2007
Draft is Imminent
We're a little over a half hour from the Rule IV draft, and I figure I'll satisfy those 4 readers who will be logging in between now and 2 PM with a healthy dose of draft rumors before we kick things off on ESPN2.
That's all I've got for now. I'm going to go crack a beer half in celebration of the draft and half in celebration of college graduation. It's going to be a fun day; enjoy the draft.
- The Cubs are really high on HS 3B Josh Vitters or HS RHP Rick Porcello with the 3rd pick. Vitters is in the general discussion regarding the top 5 of the draft, he's a right-handed corner infielder that can mash. Rick Porcello is the consensus 2nd best pitching prospect in the draft, behind David Price, but has dropped significantly in many mock drafts due to a reported $8 million price tag.
- The White Sox are picking 25th and heavily leaning toward a pitcher. One of the names on the list is Canadian High Schooler Phillipe Aumont, who I have seen on a lot of drafts going much earlier, some in the top 10. A hitter on their list in the first round is shortstop Justin Jackson, who went to Roberson High School in Asheville, NC. Another notable graduate? Cameron Maybin.
- Bill Conlin of Philly.com has posted a column for dumb people.
- Richard Griffin speculates that the J.P. Ricciardi will harken back to his Moneyball days and the Blue Jays will focus on college players with more than a few of their bevy of early pics.
- Jim Salisbury writes that the Phils will look to add high-ceiling offensive talent in the early rounds, and focus on solid pitching later on.
That's all I've got for now. I'm going to go crack a beer half in celebration of the draft and half in celebration of college graduation. It's going to be a fun day; enjoy the draft.
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
Andrew Miller to be Called up by Detroit
Nate Robertson is heading to the DL for the Tigers with a "tired arm," which is kinda weird in early June. Andrew Miller will be called up Sunday from AA Erie to make at least two starts in Robertson's place.
Miller went 1-4, 3.48 at high-A Lakeland before getting called up to Erie, where he was dominant in four starts, going 2-0, 0.59 with 24 K's and 5 BB in 30.2 IP. He also made a start earlier in the season for the Tigers, when he held the Cardinals to 0 runs on 4 hits in 6 innings for his first big league win. He's a tall lefty in his first professional season after leading North Carolina to the College World Series championship game in 2006. He fell to Detroit at #6 in last year's draft largely due to signability issues, despite being the top rated prospect in the draft by Baseball America.
Miller features a mid-90s fastball, but usually settles for his low 90s two-seamer with good movement. He has a disgusting slider and also features a solid changeup. Tigers fans are excited that he may continue to impress in his next couple starts with the big club and stick, taking Mike Maroth's spot when Robertson returns from the DL. Normally I'm wary about rushing pitchers, but he's a guy who has three years of college under his belt and has been impressive professionally thusfar. Also, the fact that he has decent command of a third pitch bodes well for him. In a season where we've already seen Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey, Tim Lincecum, and Kevin Slowey called up for the first time, we're about to get our first extended look at Miller as a starter.
Miller went 1-4, 3.48 at high-A Lakeland before getting called up to Erie, where he was dominant in four starts, going 2-0, 0.59 with 24 K's and 5 BB in 30.2 IP. He also made a start earlier in the season for the Tigers, when he held the Cardinals to 0 runs on 4 hits in 6 innings for his first big league win. He's a tall lefty in his first professional season after leading North Carolina to the College World Series championship game in 2006. He fell to Detroit at #6 in last year's draft largely due to signability issues, despite being the top rated prospect in the draft by Baseball America.
Miller features a mid-90s fastball, but usually settles for his low 90s two-seamer with good movement. He has a disgusting slider and also features a solid changeup. Tigers fans are excited that he may continue to impress in his next couple starts with the big club and stick, taking Mike Maroth's spot when Robertson returns from the DL. Normally I'm wary about rushing pitchers, but he's a guy who has three years of college under his belt and has been impressive professionally thusfar. Also, the fact that he has decent command of a third pitch bodes well for him. In a season where we've already seen Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey, Tim Lincecum, and Kevin Slowey called up for the first time, we're about to get our first extended look at Miller as a starter.
Boras and the Draft
Signability is always an issue in the draft. It's what caused the Padres to make maybe the worst #1 pick ever in 2004 when they picked Matt Bush, unheralded SS out of a San Diego High School, and paid him a $3.15 million signing bonus. They did this to avoid paying the $4.4 million that Jered Weaver got from LAA, or the $5 million Stephen Drew received from the Diamondbacks. Why were they able to predict higher signing bonuses and more guaranteed money for these guys, who were not coincidentally better prospects who have both reached the big leagues? Both were represented by Scott Boras.
Frankly, I don't understand the signability issue. Last season, Ian Kennedy fell to the Yankees at #21, and they signed him for $2.25 million, which is at least $500,000 more than each of the previous 9 picks. The Yankees piss $500,000, and they're willing to invest it in young talent that may give them three seasons of MLB production for close to the league minimum. If it doesn't work out, it's a hell of a lot less financially damaging than spending $40 million on 19 starts from Carl Pavano.
Sure, projecting amateur talent is a bit of a crap shoot. For that reason, I can see passing on a second-tier prospect because of his affiliation with Boras, when you can get a similar guy represented by someone else for a half-million less. But when we're talking about an elite prospect, this year's David Price, Matt Wieters, Josh Vitters, Rick Porcello, etc., you ought to pony up the cash and sign him. Justin Upton got $6.1 million in 2005 and even I was like wtf, but so far he is absolutely mashing AA pitching at the age of 19. If that $6.1 million stretches itself over 3 league minimum years in his prime, and then the D-Backs get 3 cost-controlled arbitration years, it looks pretty good in retrospect. If he flames out, which is still entirely possible, then they eat the $6.1 million that they likely would have spent in a hyper-inflated free agent market where they can't compete for elite talent to begin with.
I think most middle market teams are realizing this, as evidenced by the Royals' selection of Luke Hochevar in 2006 and Upton's record-setting deal in the previous year. But now it seems the Orioles are thinking about passing on Wieters if he falls to #5 because of his Boras affiliation. I don't think he will, but still, that's pretty ludicrous to me. Hey, maybe they'll save $4 million to go sign another middle reliever. Or Corey Patterson.
Frankly, I don't understand the signability issue. Last season, Ian Kennedy fell to the Yankees at #21, and they signed him for $2.25 million, which is at least $500,000 more than each of the previous 9 picks. The Yankees piss $500,000, and they're willing to invest it in young talent that may give them three seasons of MLB production for close to the league minimum. If it doesn't work out, it's a hell of a lot less financially damaging than spending $40 million on 19 starts from Carl Pavano.
Sure, projecting amateur talent is a bit of a crap shoot. For that reason, I can see passing on a second-tier prospect because of his affiliation with Boras, when you can get a similar guy represented by someone else for a half-million less. But when we're talking about an elite prospect, this year's David Price, Matt Wieters, Josh Vitters, Rick Porcello, etc., you ought to pony up the cash and sign him. Justin Upton got $6.1 million in 2005 and even I was like wtf, but so far he is absolutely mashing AA pitching at the age of 19. If that $6.1 million stretches itself over 3 league minimum years in his prime, and then the D-Backs get 3 cost-controlled arbitration years, it looks pretty good in retrospect. If he flames out, which is still entirely possible, then they eat the $6.1 million that they likely would have spent in a hyper-inflated free agent market where they can't compete for elite talent to begin with.
I think most middle market teams are realizing this, as evidenced by the Royals' selection of Luke Hochevar in 2006 and Upton's record-setting deal in the previous year. But now it seems the Orioles are thinking about passing on Wieters if he falls to #5 because of his Boras affiliation. I don't think he will, but still, that's pretty ludicrous to me. Hey, maybe they'll save $4 million to go sign another middle reliever. Or Corey Patterson.
Tuesday, June 5, 2007
Draft!!
The draft is two days away, and it's time to get excited (about the first round and a half, at least). I don't claim to be a draft expert by any stretch of the imagination; I just don't have the time to drive around the country watching high school baseball games with a radar gun. I would direct you to Baseball America for all your draft-related needs.
The first round and supplemental first round will be televised on ESPN2, starting at 2 PM on Thursday. The draft order is as follows:
The Giants have six picks in the first and supplemental first rounds combined, which is good, because their system is essentially awful, especially with the recent graduation of Tim Lincecum to the big leagues. Hopefully for San Fran, their scouting department can draft as well as they did in 2006, when they snagged him. Their top two prospects heading into 2007, Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez, are both in the bigs, making their number one prospect a 16 year old third baseman named Angel Villalona, according the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. He qualifies as high-ceiling talent, but he, along with the farm system as a whole, has a ways to go.
San Diego also has six picks in those rounds. They also don't have a very good farm system, checking in at #29 overall by BA heading into 2007. Kevin Kouzmanoff was their #4 prospect. Ugh.
Texas has five picks in the first and supplemental first rounds. They could use an infusion of pitching into their system, after dealing John Danks to the White Sox and the relative flameouts of the other two members of their formerly vaunted "DVD" trio, Edinson Volquez and Thomas Diamond. They aren't busts in the pure sense of the word, but neither of them have lived up to the hype they have received in the past. Evan Chan has more on that at the Dallas Morning News.
David Price is the consensus #1 pick to the Devil Rays. He pitched the 9th and 10th innings of College World Series Regional Final last night against Michigan, giving up a game-winning HR for his first loss of the season. He went 11-1, 2.63 with 194 SO in 133 IP for Vanderbilt, who was the #1 ranked team in the nation heading into the CWS. He's pretty good.
In my tragically unqualified opinion, I like Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech. He responded strongly to accusations that he couldn't stick at catcher in the bigs, and all scouting reports I've read on him have him staying there, where his bat plays extremely well. Wieters hit .380/.480/.592 for GA Tech this year, rebounding after a slow start, which was likely a result of pitchers throwing around him, according to John Sickels. I think position players are much easier to project, as the attrition rate for amateur pitchers is staggering. I'm not saying I would take Wieters first, but I do think it's something to at least consider. Joe Mauers and Brian McCanns are extremely rare in this day and age.
The first round and supplemental first round will be televised on ESPN2, starting at 2 PM on Thursday. The draft order is as follows:
| 1. | Tampa Bay Devil Rays |
| 2. | Kansas City Royals |
| 3. | Chicago Cubs |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Pirates |
| 5. | Baltimore Orioles |
| 6. | Washington Nationals |
| 7. | Milwaukee Brewers |
| 8. | Colorado Rockies |
| 9. | Arizona Diamondbacks |
| 10. | San Francisco Giants |
| 11. | Seattle Mariners |
| 12. | Florida Marlins |
| 13. | Cleveland Indians |
| 14. | Atlanta Braves |
| 15. | Cincinnati Reds |
| 16. | Toronto Blue Jays |
| 17. | Texas Rangers |
| 18. | St. Louis Cardinals |
| 19. | Philadelphia Phillies |
| 20. | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| 21. | Toronto Blue Jays |
| 22. | San Francisco Giants |
| 23. | San Diego Padres |
| 24. | Texas Rangers |
| 25. | Chicago White Sox |
| 26. | Oakland Athletics |
| 27. | Detroit Tigers |
| 28. | Minnesota Twins |
| 29. | San Francisco Giants |
| 30. | New York Yankees |
The Giants have six picks in the first and supplemental first rounds combined, which is good, because their system is essentially awful, especially with the recent graduation of Tim Lincecum to the big leagues. Hopefully for San Fran, their scouting department can draft as well as they did in 2006, when they snagged him. Their top two prospects heading into 2007, Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez, are both in the bigs, making their number one prospect a 16 year old third baseman named Angel Villalona, according the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. He qualifies as high-ceiling talent, but he, along with the farm system as a whole, has a ways to go.
San Diego also has six picks in those rounds. They also don't have a very good farm system, checking in at #29 overall by BA heading into 2007. Kevin Kouzmanoff was their #4 prospect. Ugh.
Texas has five picks in the first and supplemental first rounds. They could use an infusion of pitching into their system, after dealing John Danks to the White Sox and the relative flameouts of the other two members of their formerly vaunted "DVD" trio, Edinson Volquez and Thomas Diamond. They aren't busts in the pure sense of the word, but neither of them have lived up to the hype they have received in the past. Evan Chan has more on that at the Dallas Morning News.
David Price is the consensus #1 pick to the Devil Rays. He pitched the 9th and 10th innings of College World Series Regional Final last night against Michigan, giving up a game-winning HR for his first loss of the season. He went 11-1, 2.63 with 194 SO in 133 IP for Vanderbilt, who was the #1 ranked team in the nation heading into the CWS. He's pretty good.
In my tragically unqualified opinion, I like Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech. He responded strongly to accusations that he couldn't stick at catcher in the bigs, and all scouting reports I've read on him have him staying there, where his bat plays extremely well. Wieters hit .380/.480/.592 for GA Tech this year, rebounding after a slow start, which was likely a result of pitchers throwing around him, according to John Sickels. I think position players are much easier to project, as the attrition rate for amateur pitchers is staggering. I'm not saying I would take Wieters first, but I do think it's something to at least consider. Joe Mauers and Brian McCanns are extremely rare in this day and age.
Sunday, June 3, 2007
The AL Central is Getting Rowdy
In honor of the completion of a four game series between the Tigers and Indians, I think it's time to take a closer look at the most competitive division in baseball, the American League Central. Aside from the NL West, its the only division in baseball with more than two legitimate contenders, and it stands alone as the only with four teams in the running for the division championship. That may change soon, however, as GM Kenny Williams may be shopping Mark Buerhle and Jermaine Dye. With the lack of production from Crede, Dye, Konerko, and Pierzynski, the second-worst team OPS in all of baseball, and a team ERA in the bottom half of MLB, the White Sox just might not be very good. But if Williams trades one or both of Dye and Buerhle, they'll take a definite step back and probably fall out of contention. Let's look at the other three (sorry KC):
Minnesota. There's a misconception that the Twins, without Radke and Liriano, are a good offensive ballclub with four holes in the rotation. However, they currently have the lowest team ERA in the Central. Boof Bonser (4-1, 3.61) and Carlos Silva (3-6, 3.86) have been good, though Silva's K/9 of 3.86 suggests that that ERA might be a bit flukey. Kevin Slowey was good in his first start and will probably stick with the big club. GM Terry Ryan has been historically very good at graduating impact talent from the farm system to help in the stretch run; it's how the Twins have been consistently competitive under him despite budget constraints. Getting Joe Mauer back from the DL will be a boon to the offense, and Justin Morneau has followed up his MVP season with another stellar effort thusfar, Michael Cuddyer has been above average, and Torii Hunter is doing the whole Contract Year Mash Session thing. In a division where a strong bullpen is extremely important, the Twins have.......a strong bullpen. Joe Nathan (12 saves, 2.13) may be the best closer in the game. Matt Guerrier (1.91 ERA, 0.76 WHIP), Juan Rincon (2.70 ERA, 1.55 WHIP), Glen Perkins (3.80 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), and Pat Neshek (1.33 ERA, 0.81 WHIP) precede Nathan in the bullpen. That's filthy. Oh, and besides being one of the best developing late-inning guys in the game, Neshek has a super nuts submarine-ish delivery:
Twins fans looooooooove Bon Jovi.
So the Twins have options, and I think they can compete this year with or without a major trade. One of those relievers would make for some pretty nice trade bait around the deadline.
Detroit. Speaking of teams who need relief help, the Tigers come to mind. This is a team that was almost completely injury-free last year, with the exception of Mike Maroth. It's certainly coming full circle, as they have lost Kenny Rogers, Joel Zumaya, and Fernando Rodney for extended periods of time, though Rodney was activated from the DL today. They also have Brandon Inge and Carlos Guillen currently missing time, though details of their status are currently unknown, at least by me.
Detroit may have the makings of the White Sox of 2006. Coming off a year where they won the pennant on the strength of their pitching staff, they find themselves with the middle of their order as their catalyst, with pitching falling by the wayside. Sheffield, Ordonez and Guillen are the new Thome, Konerko and Dye. They do have some strength at the top of their rotation, with Jeremy Bonderman (5-0, 3.27) pitching well while trying to master a changeup, Justin Verlander (5-2, 3.44) surprising people by pitching well despite the dramatic increase in his workload last year, and Nate Robertson (4-5, 4.25) continuing to be the dependable, if unspectacular, lefty in the middle of the rotation. Chad Durbin (5-1, 4.75) has performed admirably in his call-up to replace the injured Rogers, but at some point I expect he'll come back down to earth and revert to the types of performances we saw from him at the beginning of the season. He just doesn't have the stuff. Mike Maroth (5-4, 5.28) is trying really hard, and he's cute and all, but he kinda sucks.
The Tigers currently have the fourth-worst team ERA in the Central, and a lot of that has to do with a bullpen where Jason Grilli, Jose Mesa and Todd Jones have thrown 58.1 innings between them. Cutting Jose Mesa and getting Fernando Rodney back should help, but with a 7-8-9 of Somebody Who Can Throw A Baseball, Fernando Rodney and Todd Jones still isn't going to cut it. Too bad the Twins are in the same division, eh? GM Dave Dombrowski may look to trade for a reliever, including Troy Percival, JC Romero, or Javier Lopez.
Can the Tigers compete? Absolutely, if two things happen.
First, their pitching needs to remain a strength. Bonderman has to show he is a true ace over the course of an entire season, Verlander needs to build on last season without breaking down after the All-Star break, Nate Robertson needs to stay consistent, and the Tigs need to find someone to step up and fill the #4 spot in the rotation. The bullpen needs to be strengthened, and quickly
Second, they need to get healthy and stay healthy. Carlos Guillen can't miss the 75 games he did in 2005; he's arguably the most productive offensive SS in the game. Magglio is the undisputed MVP of the first two months of the season. He seems to be fully healthy; he's gotta stay that way. Same with Sheffield, Pudge, et. al. The Tigers are going to be in the mix again in October with a little of the luck they received last year.
Cleveland. The Tribe is proving that their expected win-loss from last year was no fluke. They're a good ball club, and just about everybody saw it coming. Grady Sizemore is sick, albeit off to a bit of a slow start by his standards (.277/.399/.479), but that's still good for an OPS of .878. I'd expect an improvement on last year's .908 OPS when it's all said and done, however, as power is generally the last tool to develop and Sizemore looks like he's going to have quite a bit of it. Batting him at the top of the order is perplexing to me; I'm not sure who Eric Wedge should stick up there but i think Sizemore has too much run-producing ability to hit first; I'm thinking he's more suited for hitting in the two or three hole. Travis Hafner (.272/.427/.482) is disgusting, and he's "slumping" to the tune of a .909 OPS. Victor Martinez has been the team's most productive hitter, slugging 12 home runs already. I'm not really sure where the power came from, as he only hit 16 in 572 at-bats last year. I really think the Tribe would be well served to move Martinez to first base and put Kelly Shoppach behind the plate full time; he's hit very well in limited ABs this year, and saving Victor's legs will allow him to harness that power and become a very dangerous hitter in the cleanup spot. Shoppach is a much better defensive catcher as well.
Most Tribe fans I know (I live in Ohio) seem to harbor a strong dislike for Casey Blake (.281/.372/.503), which is kinda weird. I tend to like guys that play for my team if they have an OPS of .875. He was pretty bad in 2005, but in '04 and '06 he was an above-average hitter. IDK, Cleveland sports fans are different. He's played the majority of his games at third, where he belongs, because Andy Marte is a clown, as well as a large bust as a prospect. What to do with Ryan Garko's (.331/.392/.515) bat if you move Victor to first? I would break up one of the platoons at the outfield corners (Dellucci/Nixon/Michaels) and stick him there. His bat is promising, the three platooners are more like 4th OFers. All in all, it's a pretty impressive lineup.
Pitching? Cleveland is one of the more interesting case studies in terms of pitching talent. At the top of the rotation, you have CC Sabathia (8-1), who is pitching pretty well at this point, but whose wins don't really match up with that ERA. Injury risk is always a risk with CC, as he's spent time on the DL in each of the past two years with a strained oblique. Strained obliques are things that happen to fat people. Sorry, bro, but you're borderline obese. Granted, he still approached 200 IP in each of those years, but it will be tough on the Tribe if he missed 3 or 4 starts during a crucial stretch run. Cliff Lee (2-3, 6.35) was pretty good in 2005, average in 2006, and has been pretty awful thusfar in 2007 in 7 starts since returning from the DL. Honestly, I think he's still hurting, but that's completely unsubstantiated guessing on my part. He just doesn't look like the Lee of 2005. Fausto Carmona (6-1, 3.29) is becoming the ace of the staff. After a traumatic 2006, he's clowning on fools with great frequency so far in '07. He was a highly touted prospect, so this isn't completely unexpected. The only knock I have on Fausto is a low K/9 rate (3.69). That's usually a predictor of future poor performance; it's a lot harder to get guys out when they are constantly putting the ball in play. Chien-Ming Wang has been successful in spite of the same problem, however, so I guess you never know. Paul Byrd (6-1, 3.57) is acting all nasty and stuff, finally earning that $7.5 millionish that Cleveland is paying him this year. Jeremy Sowers (1-5, 6.29) has been wack, to put it lightly, and is risking a demotion in favor of top prospect Adam Miller.
The bullpen is ehh. Joe Borowski (17 saves, 6.75) is Todd Jones part deux. He's not good, he gets some lucky saves, and he has a high ERA that means he's destined to fail as a closer at some point. Your closer is not supposed to have the second highest ERA on the team, Mr. Wedge. Roberto Hernandez (6.23 ERA, 1.94 WHIP) is geriatric and not good. Fernando Cabrera (5.91 ERA, 1.78 WHIP) is not living up to his "future closer" prospect status, but that K/9 of 12.66 is like WHOA. Tom Mastny (4.55 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) is okay, I guess. Aaron Fultz (1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) and Rafael Betancourt (1.61 ERA, 0.81 WHIP) are really good; look for one of them to steal Borowski's job in the near future.
The Tribe is good. Do they have holes? Sure, but not many. I'd put their chances for winning the Central on the shoulders of their rotation. I'll be interested to see how sustainable Carmona's present performance is. I think the Wild Card comes out of the Central again this year, though. Two of these three teams are going to be playing into October; if I had to guess, I would go with Cleveland winning the division and Detroit taking the WC.
Minnesota. There's a misconception that the Twins, without Radke and Liriano, are a good offensive ballclub with four holes in the rotation. However, they currently have the lowest team ERA in the Central. Boof Bonser (4-1, 3.61) and Carlos Silva (3-6, 3.86) have been good, though Silva's K/9 of 3.86 suggests that that ERA might be a bit flukey. Kevin Slowey was good in his first start and will probably stick with the big club. GM Terry Ryan has been historically very good at graduating impact talent from the farm system to help in the stretch run; it's how the Twins have been consistently competitive under him despite budget constraints. Getting Joe Mauer back from the DL will be a boon to the offense, and Justin Morneau has followed up his MVP season with another stellar effort thusfar, Michael Cuddyer has been above average, and Torii Hunter is doing the whole Contract Year Mash Session thing. In a division where a strong bullpen is extremely important, the Twins have.......a strong bullpen. Joe Nathan (12 saves, 2.13) may be the best closer in the game. Matt Guerrier (1.91 ERA, 0.76 WHIP), Juan Rincon (2.70 ERA, 1.55 WHIP), Glen Perkins (3.80 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), and Pat Neshek (1.33 ERA, 0.81 WHIP) precede Nathan in the bullpen. That's filthy. Oh, and besides being one of the best developing late-inning guys in the game, Neshek has a super nuts submarine-ish delivery:
Twins fans looooooooove Bon Jovi.
So the Twins have options, and I think they can compete this year with or without a major trade. One of those relievers would make for some pretty nice trade bait around the deadline.
Detroit. Speaking of teams who need relief help, the Tigers come to mind. This is a team that was almost completely injury-free last year, with the exception of Mike Maroth. It's certainly coming full circle, as they have lost Kenny Rogers, Joel Zumaya, and Fernando Rodney for extended periods of time, though Rodney was activated from the DL today. They also have Brandon Inge and Carlos Guillen currently missing time, though details of their status are currently unknown, at least by me.
Detroit may have the makings of the White Sox of 2006. Coming off a year where they won the pennant on the strength of their pitching staff, they find themselves with the middle of their order as their catalyst, with pitching falling by the wayside. Sheffield, Ordonez and Guillen are the new Thome, Konerko and Dye. They do have some strength at the top of their rotation, with Jeremy Bonderman (5-0, 3.27) pitching well while trying to master a changeup, Justin Verlander (5-2, 3.44) surprising people by pitching well despite the dramatic increase in his workload last year, and Nate Robertson (4-5, 4.25) continuing to be the dependable, if unspectacular, lefty in the middle of the rotation. Chad Durbin (5-1, 4.75) has performed admirably in his call-up to replace the injured Rogers, but at some point I expect he'll come back down to earth and revert to the types of performances we saw from him at the beginning of the season. He just doesn't have the stuff. Mike Maroth (5-4, 5.28) is trying really hard, and he's cute and all, but he kinda sucks.
The Tigers currently have the fourth-worst team ERA in the Central, and a lot of that has to do with a bullpen where Jason Grilli, Jose Mesa and Todd Jones have thrown 58.1 innings between them. Cutting Jose Mesa and getting Fernando Rodney back should help, but with a 7-8-9 of Somebody Who Can Throw A Baseball, Fernando Rodney and Todd Jones still isn't going to cut it. Too bad the Twins are in the same division, eh? GM Dave Dombrowski may look to trade for a reliever, including Troy Percival, JC Romero, or Javier Lopez.
Can the Tigers compete? Absolutely, if two things happen.
First, their pitching needs to remain a strength. Bonderman has to show he is a true ace over the course of an entire season, Verlander needs to build on last season without breaking down after the All-Star break, Nate Robertson needs to stay consistent, and the Tigs need to find someone to step up and fill the #4 spot in the rotation. The bullpen needs to be strengthened, and quickly
Second, they need to get healthy and stay healthy. Carlos Guillen can't miss the 75 games he did in 2005; he's arguably the most productive offensive SS in the game. Magglio is the undisputed MVP of the first two months of the season. He seems to be fully healthy; he's gotta stay that way. Same with Sheffield, Pudge, et. al. The Tigers are going to be in the mix again in October with a little of the luck they received last year.
Cleveland. The Tribe is proving that their expected win-loss from last year was no fluke. They're a good ball club, and just about everybody saw it coming. Grady Sizemore is sick, albeit off to a bit of a slow start by his standards (.277/.399/.479), but that's still good for an OPS of .878. I'd expect an improvement on last year's .908 OPS when it's all said and done, however, as power is generally the last tool to develop and Sizemore looks like he's going to have quite a bit of it. Batting him at the top of the order is perplexing to me; I'm not sure who Eric Wedge should stick up there but i think Sizemore has too much run-producing ability to hit first; I'm thinking he's more suited for hitting in the two or three hole. Travis Hafner (.272/.427/.482) is disgusting, and he's "slumping" to the tune of a .909 OPS. Victor Martinez has been the team's most productive hitter, slugging 12 home runs already. I'm not really sure where the power came from, as he only hit 16 in 572 at-bats last year. I really think the Tribe would be well served to move Martinez to first base and put Kelly Shoppach behind the plate full time; he's hit very well in limited ABs this year, and saving Victor's legs will allow him to harness that power and become a very dangerous hitter in the cleanup spot. Shoppach is a much better defensive catcher as well.
Most Tribe fans I know (I live in Ohio) seem to harbor a strong dislike for Casey Blake (.281/.372/.503), which is kinda weird. I tend to like guys that play for my team if they have an OPS of .875. He was pretty bad in 2005, but in '04 and '06 he was an above-average hitter. IDK, Cleveland sports fans are different. He's played the majority of his games at third, where he belongs, because Andy Marte is a clown, as well as a large bust as a prospect. What to do with Ryan Garko's (.331/.392/.515) bat if you move Victor to first? I would break up one of the platoons at the outfield corners (Dellucci/Nixon/Michaels) and stick him there. His bat is promising, the three platooners are more like 4th OFers. All in all, it's a pretty impressive lineup.
Pitching? Cleveland is one of the more interesting case studies in terms of pitching talent. At the top of the rotation, you have CC Sabathia (8-1), who is pitching pretty well at this point, but whose wins don't really match up with that ERA. Injury risk is always a risk with CC, as he's spent time on the DL in each of the past two years with a strained oblique. Strained obliques are things that happen to fat people. Sorry, bro, but you're borderline obese. Granted, he still approached 200 IP in each of those years, but it will be tough on the Tribe if he missed 3 or 4 starts during a crucial stretch run. Cliff Lee (2-3, 6.35) was pretty good in 2005, average in 2006, and has been pretty awful thusfar in 2007 in 7 starts since returning from the DL. Honestly, I think he's still hurting, but that's completely unsubstantiated guessing on my part. He just doesn't look like the Lee of 2005. Fausto Carmona (6-1, 3.29) is becoming the ace of the staff. After a traumatic 2006, he's clowning on fools with great frequency so far in '07. He was a highly touted prospect, so this isn't completely unexpected. The only knock I have on Fausto is a low K/9 rate (3.69). That's usually a predictor of future poor performance; it's a lot harder to get guys out when they are constantly putting the ball in play. Chien-Ming Wang has been successful in spite of the same problem, however, so I guess you never know. Paul Byrd (6-1, 3.57) is acting all nasty and stuff, finally earning that $7.5 millionish that Cleveland is paying him this year. Jeremy Sowers (1-5, 6.29) has been wack, to put it lightly, and is risking a demotion in favor of top prospect Adam Miller.
The bullpen is ehh. Joe Borowski (17 saves, 6.75) is Todd Jones part deux. He's not good, he gets some lucky saves, and he has a high ERA that means he's destined to fail as a closer at some point. Your closer is not supposed to have the second highest ERA on the team, Mr. Wedge. Roberto Hernandez (6.23 ERA, 1.94 WHIP) is geriatric and not good. Fernando Cabrera (5.91 ERA, 1.78 WHIP) is not living up to his "future closer" prospect status, but that K/9 of 12.66 is like WHOA. Tom Mastny (4.55 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) is okay, I guess. Aaron Fultz (1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) and Rafael Betancourt (1.61 ERA, 0.81 WHIP) are really good; look for one of them to steal Borowski's job in the near future.
The Tribe is good. Do they have holes? Sure, but not many. I'd put their chances for winning the Central on the shoulders of their rotation. I'll be interested to see how sustainable Carmona's present performance is. I think the Wild Card comes out of the Central again this year, though. Two of these three teams are going to be playing into October; if I had to guess, I would go with Cleveland winning the division and Detroit taking the WC.
Friday, June 1, 2007
Who Should Move Up a Level?
It's always a sketchy proposition to move prospects too quickly through the system. However, I feel it's a bad idea to leave a guy loitering in too low a level where they have nothing left to prove. Here's my take on a few guys who could be looked at:
- It sounds hard to believe, but Justin Upton could get a call after a few more at-bats. I realize that 63 ABs is a small sample size, but after only 126 in the high-A California league, he's batting .349/.414/.825 for Mobile of the AA Southern league. Yeah....he's slugging .825. He has two more home runs in exactly half his A ball at-bats. The only troubling peripheral is his K/BB ratio, which sits at 18 to 4. That could be the result of seeing better breaking balls in a higher level, and possible justification for leaving him there for the rest of the season. It's not like he's facing elite pitching prospects either; at first glance, Gio Gonzalez is the best prospect in that league.
- Cameron Maybin moved from the low-A Midwest League, where he produced, to the high-A Florida State League, where he continues to produce, to the tune of a .311/.428/.486 line. Certainly not Uptonian, but similar to Upton's numbers at the same level before his call-up. Remember, after Maybin and Upton's relative numbers in their first professional season last year, many were suggesting that Cameron may be the better prospect, despite the $2.5 millionish signing bonus discrepancy between the two of them. The (only?) knock on Maybin thusfar has been his strikeouts, and that has so far held true this year. His 58 K's are good for fourth in the FSL.
- Rounding out the trifecta of stud OFers drafted in 2006, we turn to Jay Bruce. Reds fans are orgasmic about their toolsy farmhand (lolz), and with good reason. He's mashing in the same league as Maybin. At .322/.374/.590, he has the best slugging percentage in the Florida State League. He walks less and strikes out almost as much as Maybin, but his power numbers speak for themselves. It should also be noted that the FSL has some pretty good pitching talent, including the Yankees' Ian Kennedy, the Devil Rays' Jacob McGee and Wade Davis, and Notre Dame's The Great Jeff Samardzija (mild sarcasm).
- Catching prospects are fun. The Rangers' Taylor Teagarden is making a case in the California League to join Justin Upton in AA. He was presumably hurt last year, as he only got 20 ABs in the Arizona League, but he sports an OPS of 1.169 with 10 home runs. I don't know, is that good for a catcher? Over at MotownSports he had been discussed in the past as a complement to Mark Texeira in a trade to the Tigers. I don't think he's a candidate to be moved any time soon.
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